argues that those nice 12,000 warm years are approaching their end and the following 100,000 years will impress us with a new ice age. 😉
Update: David Archibald has reminded me of this picture (with an imminent icy prediction) from the 2000 article in Science by Berger and Loutre. Archibald included it in his cute book, Solar Cycle 24, as Figure 3.
Well, an imminent cooling is surely possible but the article doesn’t look like the most convincing piece of science to me – both because of technical reasons, missing references, as well as entertaining, otherwise unimportant mistakes (for example, they claim that the Serbian astronomer Milutin Milanković was Czech).
But I would like to ask you what you know and think about the reconstruction of the climate record from the Milankovitch cycles. How good a fit can we actually obtain by combining the known astronomical cycles with well-chosen coefficients?
There are indications that the purely astronomical theory fails to describe very low-frequency signals – with approximately 100,000-year or 400,000-year periodicity – whose observed amplitude seems to be much larger than the theoretically predicted one: natural climate change at very long timescales seems to be much more intense than our theories say.
I am probably going to play with Mathematica and Fourier series for a while.
Bonus: music and global warming
the mostly natural warming since the 17th century has changed the sound of wooden instruments,a statement that sounds funny but I find it perfectly plausible, Joe D’Aleo recommends Michael Mann to include violins in the list of his favorite proxies. The rapid increase of electronic instruments in the recent years will become just another proof of the hockey-stick-shaped, catastrophic man-made global warming. 😉